ZDF Politbarometer: Nearly Half of Germans Expect Early End to Union‑SPD Coalition
A ZDF Politbarometer poll finds 48% of respondents expect the Union‑SPD coalition to collapse before 2029, signalling sharply reduced confidence in Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government.
Survey snapshot: public doubts rise sharply
The ZDF Politbarometer, conducted from May 5 to May 7, 2026, asked 1,240 randomly selected eligible voters about the longevity of the Union‑SPD government. Forty‑eight percent of respondents said they expect a premature end to the coalition, up from 30 percent in the survey two months earlier. Only 47 percent now believe the government will remain in office until the 2029 federal election, a decline from 66 percent in March 2026.
Party standings in the poll
On the headline “Sonntagsfrage” voting intention measure, the AfD leads with 27 percent, one point higher than in April 2026. The CDU/CSU remain at 25 percent while the SPD holds at 12 percent, figures that together would leave the incumbent coalition without a parliamentary majority. The Greens dropped to 13 percent, the Left party stands at 11 percent, and the FDP is recorded at 3 percent in the survey.
What the numbers imply for the coalition
The poll indicates a growing perception among voters that the Union‑SPD alliance is unstable and may not complete its term. With the AfD leading and the combined Union‑SPD share below 40 percent, the survey suggests a volatile electoral landscape. Political analysts caution that current seat projections would depend on regional variations and the final distribution of votes on election day, not captured by a single cross‑sectional poll.
Polling method and limitations
ZDF reports the Politbarometer sample was gathered via telephone and online interviews of 1,240 respondents and is described as representative of eligible voters in Germany. As with all opinion polling, the results are a snapshot of attitudes during the May 5–7 field period and are subject to sampling error, response biases and short‑term fluctuations. Changes in party attachment, late campaign dynamics, and events between surveys can alter results rapidly, making single polls indicative but not definitive.
Potential political reactions and stakes
The rising expectation of an early coalition breakdown increases pressure on party leaders to address internal disagreements and public concerns. For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, declining confidence may prompt defensive messaging and efforts to shore up support within the CDU/CSU and partner SPD. Opposition parties, particularly the AfD, are likely to emphasise the government’s perceived instability in their communications to capitalise on shifting voter sentiment.
Across Berlin and party headquarters, the poll may trigger tactical discussions about legislative priorities, timing of votes and strategies to avoid public disputes that could accelerate a government crisis. Conversely, coalition coordinators could use the finding to argue for accelerated policy delivery as proof of competence and cohesion.
Context within broader polling trends
The Politbarometer result aligns with other recent surveys that showed the AfD ahead in national voting intention measures, while traditional governing parties face erosion in some demographic groups. Analysts note that lower core party identification and more frequent last‑minute voting decisions complicate the predictive value of current polls. Longitudinal trends and multiple, independently conducted polls must be compared to assess trajectory rather than relying on single‑survey snapshots.
The May 5–7, 2026 Politbarometer underlines the fragility of voter confidence in the Union‑SPD coalition and highlights the fluidity of Germany’s political environment ahead of the 2029 Bundestag election.
