Global cancer cases surge to 18.5 million in 2023; nearly half of deaths preventable, study warns
Global cancer cases hit 18.5 million in 2023 and could reach 30.5 million by 2050; nearly half of deaths are preventable with prevention, screening and care.
The latest global analysis shows global cancer cases more than doubled since 1990, reaching 18.5 million new diagnoses in 2023 while annual deaths climbed to 10.4 million. Researchers warn that about 42 percent of those deaths are linked to 44 modifiable risk factors, meaning a substantial portion could be averted through prevention, early detection and expanded access to treatment. Projections to 2050 estimate new cases could rise to 30.5 million and deaths to 18.6 million, driven primarily by population growth and aging. The study’s authors and public health experts are urging immediate policy action to narrow inequities and strengthen cancer control worldwide.
Surge in cases and deaths since 1990
Since 1990 the global burden of cancer has shifted dramatically, with new diagnoses increasing by more than 100 percent and annual deaths rising roughly three-quarters. The 2023 totals — 18.5 million incident cases and 10.4 million deaths — exclude non-melanoma skin cancers and reflect data compiled across 204 countries and territories. Although age-adjusted death rates have fallen overall, the absolute number of people affected has grown because populations are larger and older. That divergence underscores why raw counts and rate measures must both inform public health planning.
Projections show steep increases by 2050
Researchers project a 61 percent jump in annual cancer diagnoses by 2050, to about 30.5 million cases, with deaths increasing nearly 75 percent to 18.6 million a year if current trends persist. The modelling attributes most of the rise to demographic change rather than worsening individual risk, but warns that without scaling up prevention and treatment the human toll will expand significantly. The forecast also signals that low- and middle-income countries will bear the majority of future cases and deaths, amplifying pressure on already strained health systems.
Preventable risks linked to millions of deaths
The analysis finds that 42 percent of cancer deaths in 2023 — roughly 4.3 million fatalities — were associated with 44 modifiable risk factors, ranging from tobacco use to high fasting plasma glucose. Tobacco alone accounted for about 21 percent of cancer deaths worldwide, while unsafe sex remained a dominant factor in some low-income settings. Behavioral risks were the leading contributors across income groups, highlighting the potential gains from population-level interventions such as tobacco control, improved diets, and measures to reduce air pollution and occupational exposures.
Uneven progress across countries and cancer types
Improvements in age-standardized cancer mortality have been concentrated in high- and upper-middle-income countries, while incidence rose in low- and lower-middle-income nations. Breast cancer emerged as the most frequently diagnosed cancer globally in 2023, and tracheal, bronchus and lung cancers remained the leading cause of cancer deaths. Country-level shifts were pronounced: Lebanon recorded one of the largest percentage increases in age-standardized incidence and mortality since 1990, the United Arab Emirates showed a notable decline in incidence, and Kazakhstan registered a marked decrease in death rates. These divergent trends reflect differences in exposure to risk factors, health system capacity, and cancer surveillance.
Calls for expanded prevention, diagnosis and treatment
Lead author Dr. Lisa Force of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and co-authors emphasize that meeting this challenge will require stronger government action, more funding and equitable delivery of services. Experts recommend integrating prevention into national health plans, expanding early detection and diagnostic capacity, and ensuring affordable access to effective treatments and supportive care. They also stress the importance of strengthening cancer registries and vital-statistics systems so policymakers can track progress and direct resources where they are most needed.
Study methods, funding and limitations
The Global Burden of Disease 2023 Cancer Collaborators based their estimates on cancer registries, vital registration systems and verbal autopsy interviews, covering 47 cancer groupings and 44 risk factors from 1990 to 2023. The work was funded by major philanthropic and research organizations and published as a comprehensive global assessment. Authors note important limitations: data gaps in lower-resource settings, incomplete accounting for some infectious causes of cancer such as Helicobacter pylori and Schistosoma haematobium, and projections that do not incorporate the potential long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, armed conflicts, or future medical breakthroughs.
The study’s findings have clear policy implications: a substantial share of the coming cancer burden can be mitigated by proven public-health measures and by expanding timely diagnosis and treatment. Strengthening multisectoral prevention efforts, investing in health-system capacity, and closing surveillance gaps are presented as urgent priorities to avoid a sharper escalation of cancer-related morbidity and mortality in the decades ahead.
