Migrant skilled workers in Germany concentrate in cities and the West, leaving east with low shares, IW study finds
IW study finds migrant skilled workers in Germany concentrate in city-states and the West, leaving eastern states with low shares and urgent political risks.
Germany’s migrant skilled workers are clustering in city-states and western states rather than in the eastern federal states, according to a new analysis by the Cologne-based Institute of the German Economy (IW). The IW study, using 2024 labour-market data, finds the share of qualified workers born abroad is nearly a quarter nationally, but drops to single digits across much of the east. Policymakers and regional employers say the pattern deepens demographic pressures and complicates efforts to close skills gaps in eastern Germany.
Concentration in city-states and western states
The IW figures show the highest proportions of migrant skilled workers in Berlin, Bremen and Hamburg, where roughly one in four qualified workers was not born in Germany in 2024. Among larger western states, Hesse and Baden-Württemberg also recorded above‑20 percent shares of foreign‑born skilled employees.
By contrast, several eastern states registered shares under 8 percent, a level roughly one third of the western high‑share states. The uneven distribution points to a persistent urban and western pull for in‑migration of qualified labour.
Detailed regional gaps in the east
Measured shares of foreign‑born qualified workers were especially low in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern (6.9 percent), Saxony‑Anhalt (7.1 percent) and Brandenburg (7.4 percent) in 2024. Those figures stand in stark contrast to Berlin’s 27.1 percent and Hesse’s 22.4 percent, illustrating a wide regional divide.
The IW analysis also notes that, overall for Germany, 24.8 percent of people aged 25 to 64 were born abroad in 2024, indicating that the east’s shortfall is not explained by national trends alone. Local economic structures, metropolitan amenities and migration networks are cited as drivers of the divergence.
Political climate and recruitment hurdles
The study’s findings arrive amid a political backdrop that officials say can deter newcomers from settling in parts of the east. Polling in the five eastern federal states excluding Berlin shows strong support for the right‑wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), with party figures in surveys ranging between roughly 34 and 39 percent, according to reporting cited alongside the IW research.
Federal Ostbeauftragte Elisabeth Kaiser warned that populist rhetoric that fuels scepticism about co‑existence with migrants poses a risk to local recruitment and integration efforts. She said a culture of openness is essential if eastern states are to attract the workers needed to offset ageing and labour shortages.
Business and demographic implications
Employers in manufacturing, healthcare and services in eastern states face an ageing workforce and lower inflows of qualified migrants, which may slow investment and productivity gains. Companies report difficulties filling specialist vacancies that are more readily closed in larger cities and prosperous western regions.
Analysts note that without targeted measures—such as relocation incentives, improved transport links, and expanded housing and childcare—regional disparities could widen, increasing pressure on public finances and constraining regional growth potential.
Policy responses and integration measures
Officials at federal and state level have underscored the need for proactive recruitment and retention strategies to make eastern regions more attractive to migrant skilled workers. Proposals discussed include streamlined recognition of foreign qualifications, targeted vocational partnerships, and local integration programs designed to foster social inclusion.
Local government leaders also point to the importance of tangible quality‑of‑life improvements, including affordable housing and career prospects for partners of incoming specialists, as critical to changing settlement patterns over the medium term.
Germany’s ability to meet future labour demand hinges on where migrant skilled workers choose to live and work, the IW study suggests. Concentration in urban centres and western states delivers clear short‑term benefits for employers there, but leaves eastern regions exposed to demographic decline and recruitment shortfalls.
Longer‑term strategies will likely combine economic incentives, municipal services, and efforts to counteract exclusionary political narratives if eastern states are to become competitive destinations for migrant skilled workers.
