American-Israeli attack on Iran leaves regional order in limbo, expert warns
Nine weeks into the American-Israeli attack on Iran, uncertainty reigns over the conflict’s end, regional balance, and political fallout for the US and Europe.
Stalemate nine weeks after the strike
Nine weeks after the American-Israeli attack on Iran began, the battlefield has shifted into an uneasy stagnation with no active large-scale combat but also no negotiated peace. Military operations have receded from public view, yet diplomatic channels have not produced an exit plan, leaving the region in a tense holding pattern. Observers describe a conflict that has neither decisive victory nor clear pathway to de-escalation.
The ambiguity is reshaping calculations in capitals across the Middle East and beyond, where officials now face a prolonged period of uncertainty. The absence of visible hostilities has not translated into security for civilians or regional actors, who continue to assess risks and alignments in real time.
US influence in the Middle East under scrutiny
Guido Steinberg, an Iran specialist at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (German Institute for International and Security Affairs), argues that the episode has signaled a fundamental shift in American influence across the region. According to Steinberg, long-standing U.S. predominance appears to have eroded as regional powers adapt to a new strategic environment. Allies and adversaries alike are recalibrating their policies in response to what they perceive as a diminished U.S. ability to shape outcomes unilaterally.
This reassessment affects military postures, diplomatic outreach, and economic ties, with several states exploring hedging strategies to secure their interests. The fallout is likely to endure even if direct confrontation subsides, as trust in predictable U.S. leadership has been tested.
Implications for Germany and European policy
Germany and its European partners face immediate questions about their interests and influence in the Middle East. Steinberg highlights that Berlin must consider both security and economic stakes—energy supply chains, migration pressures, and counterterrorism cooperation—when forming a response. Europe’s traditional reliance on U.S.-led frameworks is under pressure, prompting debate on whether the EU should pursue more autonomous policies.
Policy-makers in Brussels and Berlin are also confronting the diplomatic challenge of maintaining relations with Israel while addressing broader regional stability. Germany’s historical and political ties to Israel complicate its options, forcing a balance between alliance obligations and long-term regional interests.
Israel’s role and consequences for German foreign policy
The conflict has intensified scrutiny of Israel’s policy decisions and their reverberations for European diplomacy. Steinberg describes Israel as simultaneously a crucial partner and a complicating factor for German foreign policy. Berlin must navigate the tension of supporting an ally while urging restraint to avoid deeper regional escalation.
This dynamic raises questions about arms exports, intelligence cooperation, and public diplomacy in Europe. German officials will need to weigh domestic political sensitivities and international legal considerations as they define a coherent stance toward both Israel and broader Middle Eastern developments.
Political fallout for Washington and for Donald Trump
The war’s trajectory has direct implications for U.S. domestic politics, where questions about responsibility and effectiveness are already surfacing. Analysts are debating whether Iran’s survival of the initial assault—without a decisive collapse—constitutes a strategic setback for the U.S. and a political liability for President Donald Trump. Critics argue that ambiguity at the end of major operations can be framed as failure by opponents, while supporters may claim that escalation was averted.
Steinberg’s assessment suggests that even absent catastrophic losses, perceived setbacks can reshape narratives in Washington. The political calculus will depend on the conflict’s next phase and on how U.S. leaders manage diplomatic repair and coalition-building.
Discussion on the podcast ‘Das Politikteil’
The nuances of the conflict and its consequences were examined this week on the German political podcast “Das Politikteil,” where Steinberg joined hosts to outline likely scenarios for the region. He emphasized the need for Europe to draw practical lessons from the unexpectedly prolonged crisis, including investment in diplomatic capacity and contingency planning. The podcast format allowed for a measured analysis that connected strategic shifts to immediate policy choices in Berlin and Brussels.
Listeners were encouraged to consider longer-term realignments rather than focusing solely on immediate headlines, as the structural effects of the confrontation may outlast any short-term ceasefire or lull.
The international community now confronts a set of difficult choices as the situation remains unresolved. With traditional power dynamics in question and political costs rising for key actors, gradual diplomatic engagement, coordinated European responses, and careful crisis management will be essential to prevent further destabilization.
