Israel warns Gaza fighting could resume within months as Board of Peace weighs breach
Israel warns Gaza fighting could resume within months as a US-led Board of Peace considers declaring Hamas in breach, heightening tensions before October elections.
Israel warned on Saturday that Gaza fighting could resume within the next two months as officials said a US-led Board of Peace may soon rule that Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement. The broadcaster Channel 12, citing Israeli sources, reported that a breach finding could open the way for renewed raids in parts of Gaza outside Israel’s current control. Israeli officials framed the timing as pressing ahead of October elections, raising the prospect of an early return to large-scale hostilities.
Israeli officials set a narrow timetable for renewed operations
A report by Channel 12 said Israeli authorities expect the Board of Peace to conclude within two to three months that Hamas failed to disarm as required by the ceasefire framework. That assessment, according to the report, has led security planners to prepare for the possibility of resumed operations in Gaza. Officials told the broadcaster the declaration of a breach would legally and politically alter Israel’s calculations about military steps in areas not covered by existing arrangements.
Political sources quoted by Channel 12 also said the timeline fits a domestic political calendar that places additional pressure on decision makers. With national elections scheduled for October, the prospect of renewed fighting has entered campaign calculations and public debate. Israeli leaders could face heightened scrutiny over any action taken before voters go to the polls.
Board of Peace deliberations and potential breach finding
The Board of Peace was established under a US initiative in January and is chaired, the report said, by the US president as part of an effort to secure a settlement in Gaza. Channel 12 reported that the board is expected to review compliance with the terms of the October ceasefire and to determine whether Hamas has met its disarmament commitments. According to sources quoted by the broadcaster, a formal finding that Hamas is in breach would remove a diplomatic obstacle to a broader Israeli response in contested areas.
Channel 12 further said that board deliberations have been closely watched by mediators and regional actors seeking to prevent a relapse into open conflict. Any declaration of noncompliance would likely trigger swift political and diplomatic reactions across the region and among Western interlocutors. The report suggested that international pressure to maintain the ceasefire remains a significant factor in the board’s deliberations.
Director general Nikolay Mladenov reportedly delayed a breach declaration
The broadcaster cited a political source who said Nikolay Mladenov, the board’s director general, considered declaring Hamas in breach two months ago. That move was reportedly postponed after mediators asked for more time to pursue diplomatic channels and to seek clearer evidence of noncompliance. The source told Channel 12 that Mladenov would declare a breach if the situation remained unchanged within three months.
Those close to the talks described the decision to delay as an effort to preserve the ceasefire and allow humanitarian and verification mechanisms to continue their work. The report indicates, however, that patience among some parties is limited and that procedural steps may now give way to more forceful determinations.
Reported violations, casualties and humanitarian constraints since the ceasefire
Channel 12’s account reiterates claims that the October ceasefire, while halting large-scale warfare, has not ended all violence or suffering in Gaza. The report said Israel has repeatedly violated the agreement, killing more than 1,000 Palestinians since the truce and expanding a buffer zone inside Gaza. It also cited the wider toll of the conflict, saying nearly 72,000 Palestinians were killed in two years of fighting and that much of the territory was left devastated.
Humanitarian agencies and international monitors have repeatedly warned of severe shortages of food, medicine and shelter in Gaza and have criticized tight restrictions on aid deliveries. The report attributed continued limits on humanitarian access to Israeli security measures and to restrictions connected to the buffer zone, while also noting deep concern over civilian casualties.
Hamas refusal to disarm and the conditions it demands
According to the Channel 12 account, Hamas has refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fulfills obligations under the first phase of the October agreement. The movement has insisted on concrete steps on reconstruction, easing of movement and sustained humanitarian access before entering talks on weapons. That stance has been cited by both mediators and Israeli officials as a central obstacle to a durable settlement.
Diplomatic sources told the broadcaster that the impasse over sequencing and verification has left the ceasefire fragile and subject to reinterpretation by each side. If the Board of Peace issues a formal breach finding, the dispute over disarmament could become the immediate trigger for renewed operations and a rapid escalation of violence.
Israeli officials say they are preparing for multiple contingencies while urging international actors to press for implementation of the ceasefire terms. The coming weeks appear likely to determine whether diplomatic pressure, mediation and verification measures can avert another round of large-scale hostilities in Gaza, or whether a formal breach finding will clear the way for resumed fighting.
