DIW study warns AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would inflict greatest economic harm on its strongest supporters
DIW finds AfD in Saxony-Anhalt could cut disposable incomes 6.2%, cost ~10,000 jobs and leave four-person families €6,400 poorer before the September 2026 vote.
The DIW Berlin analysis shows that policies favored by the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would inflict disproportionate economic damage on the very regions that give the party its strongest support. The study’s simulations, which model measures such as an exit from the euro and EU, stricter immigration controls and deep public spending cuts, estimate an average loss of roughly €1,600 per person per year in the state. With the Landtag election scheduled for September 2026, the findings sharpen a central paradox of the campaign: areas most inclined to back the AfD would likely suffer the steepest declines under its proposed federal policies.
DIW projections point to sharp income and job declines
The DIW’s central scenario finds disposable income per capita in Saxony-Anhalt falling by about 6.2 percent, substantially above the national average. For a typical four-person household, that translates to roughly €6,400 less in annual disposable income, the study estimates. The modelling also suggests potential job losses on the order of 10,000 positions in the state, driven by reduced exports, investment declines and disruptions to integrated supply chains.
Across Germany, the DIW scenario forecasts severe macroeconomic strain, with around one million additional unemployed nationally and sustained inflationary pressure following a hypothetical exit from the euro. Those nationwide dynamics would be concentrated in regions like Saxony-Anhalt where businesses are smaller, the economy is more export-dependent and buffers to absorb shocks are weaker.
Demographic and structural factors explain AfD strength
The study identifies demography as the single strongest predictor of high AfD vote shares: older populations and regions losing younger, skilled residents tend to vote more for the party. Saxony-Anhalt is older than the German average and has experienced persistent out-migration of young professionals, leaving a relatively larger share of pension-age residents. These demographic and structural vulnerabilities help explain why the AfD’s message has gained traction there.
Notably, DIW finds that local foreign-born population shares are not positively correlated with AfD strength; in several cases the party performed better where the share of migrants is unusually low. Economic fragility, rather than proximity to migrant communities, appears to be a more decisive driver of support in structurally weak districts.
Modeled policy shocks and their transmission channels
The DIW simulations combine three central policy directions often advocated by the AfD: withdrawal from the euro and deeper EU ties, steep reductions in net migration, and sizeable cuts in public spending. An exit from the single currency, the study shows, would trigger a surge in import prices and inflation that erodes real wages. At the same time, severing ties with the EU internal market would damage export-oriented firms and their regional supplier networks.
Reduced migration would exacerbate existing labor shortages in aging regions, further undermining healthcare, construction and skilled trades. Deep public spending cuts would remove another layer of local demand and essential services, amplifying both short-term recessionary effects and longer-term declines in regional economic capacity.
Local services and labour markets face acute risks
For Saxony-Anhalt the combination of rising inflation and falling demand would likely hit real wages and employment hardest in sectors that already struggle to recruit qualified staff. The DIW projects a fall in real wages in the state of roughly eight percent, equating to about €200 per month for many workers, driven by price shocks and weaker collective bargaining leverage in a contracting economy. Health care providers, small manufacturers and municipal services—which rely on both public funding and a steady inflow of skilled workers—would be particularly exposed.
An anticipated sharp decline in migration flows would remove a key source of labor replenishment for aging communities. That would intensify staffing bottlenecks in care homes and repair services, raise costs for remaining providers and place additional strain on local governments already contending with aging infrastructure and shrinking tax bases.
Political paradox looms over the September 2026 election
The DIW’s findings crystallize a political irony: voters in structurally weak districts may support policies that, if implemented at the federal level, would worsen local economic prospects. The study stresses that its numbers are scenario-based projections, not deterministic forecasts; actual outcomes would depend on policy design, international responses and mitigation measures. Still, the directional risk is clear and politically consequential as parties and campaigns frame choices ahead of the Landtag ballot.
Campaign messaging from all sides is likely to respond to these results, with opponents of the AfD emphasizing the local economic risks and the party seeking to counter with promises of short-term relief and sovereignty gains. For undecided voters in Saxony-Anhalt, the DIW’s simulations add a concrete economic calculus to broader debates about identity, governance and regional decline.
The DIW analysis underscores that policy choices at the federal level can have highly uneven regional consequences, and that the areas supplying the AfD’s electoral strength may be least able to absorb the costs of the policies the party proposes. As Saxony-Anhalt heads toward the September 2026 election, the study provides fresh ammunition for debates over the material trade-offs implicit in those political choices.
